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Friday, July 23, 2010

To Trade or Not to Trade?

That is the question.  As the Mets have hit a pretty big slide on this road trip, a big decision is going to need to be made before the trade deadline over the next couple weeks.  Our current poll asks all of you which starter the Mets should get with a trade, but today, we need to look at whether it even makes sense for the Mets to trade for anyone at this point.  On one hand, no one wants to trade for a rental or a pitcher at the expense of prospects that can be good for the future.  On the other hand, this team could get hot at any point in a league and division where nothing is fully decided yet. Naturally, we'll pour you the kool-aid on both, because no matter what Omar decides, this team only has room for improvement.

Making a trade is something I've personally been calling for through the hot month of June and the so-so month of July as the Mets were in a position to not only win the wild card, but catch the Braves for the NL East.  Right now we find the Mets 7.5 games back of the Braves (3rd place) in the NL East and 4 games out of the Wild Card in the NL (6th place).  While this isn't an ideal situation, it's one that's definitely surmountable with a big run of wins - especially at this point in the season. 

The one thing I can't get out of my head is the Colorado Rockies in September 2007.  As much as I really don't like to remember late September 2007, the Rockies' 14-1 run to end the season starting on September 16th that put them in a position to make the playoffs and go on to make the World Series.  We know this Mets team has been streaky all year.  There have been stretches like the one this team is in right now and there have been stretches that we obviously remember where it seemed like this team can't lose.  It's hard to believe the Mets can get back to that, but I think a lot of that has to do with being at a low point right now.  With a trade for a good starter, the Mets put themselves in a position to not only have a good rotation for a run like Colorado's, but also to have success if they got into the playoffs. 

Most people will point to an ice cold offense and say that a trade for a pitcher isn't going to do anything for that, but like I said, this is a streaky team.  There is one difference between the streaks earlier this season and the potential for one now - now, everyone is healthy.  In the past, the streaks have been a result of the Mets playing above their potential.  At this point, all they have to do is be as good as they SHOULD be and a run of wins could work.  You'd hate for that to happen and have a gap in your rotation.

At the same time, everyone's always talking about prospects and not wanting to let them go for nothing.  We've gone on and on on this blog about how you can't trust prospects until they do something for you and have also cited bad trades in the past, but there's something to be said for having home grown talent in the waiting.  Guys like Jenry Mejia, Josh Thole, Fernando Martinez, and many others are doing well in the minors or even in cups of coffee chances in the majors.  When you think about the current team and how it's still young, then think about adding top prospects like those, you have to get a little giddy about the Mets' future.

Another thing to think about is expectations.  After the 2009 debacle and going into this season, everyone was calling for the Mets to be just around and maybe a bit above .500.  Even without a trade, the Mets can definitely be in the mix at the end and could compete for a record to meet those expectations.  It was just the hot streaks and the mediocre play of the NL this year that has Mets fans clamoring for a piece for the rotation.  Maybe it's time to readjust our expectations again and get excited for next year.

Speaking of next year, I've been thinking a lot of the 2005 season before the almost-magical season of 2006.  It was very similar to where we stand today.  Sparkles of being a good team, small pieces missing, low expectations, and hope for the future from the previous season's let down were all things we were feeling in 2005.  Then in 2006, it seemed like everything clicked.  Our new piece in Carlos Beltran blew up and we could see the same from a more comfortable Jason Bay next year.  We can get a key free agent like we did with Carlos Delgado, except in this off-season, we could add an arm or two to the pitching staff.  Jose Reyes and David Wright started realizing their full star potential in 2006 just like Ike Davis and Jon Niese could do next year.  Plus, in 2011, Carlos Beltran will be in a contract year and we all know how he performed down the stretch for Houston the last time he had one of those.  Combine that with the prospect talent that's expected to come up by next season and 2011 could be the season 2006 should have been.

It's hard to tell what the Mets should do.  Luckily, there are great chances for the Mets to succeed no matter what they decide.  The one thing you'll know for sure is that there will be plenty of kool-aid to go around.  Drink it up!

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